Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have sharply escalated as China launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan, simulating the seizure and blockade of key areas on the island. The exercises, codenamed “Justice Mission 2025”, involve China’s army, navy, air force, and rocket force and include live-fire components. Beijing has described the drills as a warning to what it calls “separatist forces,” while Taiwan and its allies see them as a serious threat to regional stability and international norms.
The drills come just days after the United States announced one of its largest-ever arms sales to Taiwan, worth approximately $11 billion, further inflaming relations between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington. With military movements intensifying on both sides, concerns are growing over the risk of miscalculation and conflict in one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical flashpoints.
What Is “Justice Mission 2025”?
According to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), “Justice Mission 2025” is a comprehensive joint military exercise designed to test China’s ability to conduct coordinated operations across multiple domains.
Key Features of the Drills
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Participation of multiple forces
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Army
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Navy
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Air Force
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Rocket Force
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Live-fire exercises
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Simulated seizure of key areas
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Blockade scenarios targeting Taiwan
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Joint command and coordination drills
China’s Eastern Theater Command, which oversees operations in the Taiwan Strait, described the exercise as a “shield of justice”, warning that any move toward independence would be met with overwhelming force.
Scale of Chinese Military Activity
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported a significant surge in Chinese military presence around the island.
Detected Chinese Forces
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89 military aircraft
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28 warships and coastguard vessels
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Continuous air and naval patrols near Taiwan’s airspace and waters
These numbers reflect one of the most intense military mobilizations around Taiwan in recent months, reinforcing concerns that Beijing is normalizing high-pressure military operations.
Taiwan’s Response: High Alert and Defensive Measures
In response to the drills, Taiwan placed its armed forces on high alert, deploying missile systems and mobilizing troops to monitor Chinese movements.
Taiwan’s Defensive Actions
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Activation of missile defense systems
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Enhanced air and naval surveillance
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Increased readiness across military units
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Coordination with civil aviation authorities
Taiwan’s defense ministry emphasized that these actions are aimed at defending the island and protecting its people, not provoking conflict.
Impact on Civil Aviation and Daily Life
The drills have had immediate effects on civilian activities, particularly air travel.
Aviation Disruptions
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Diversion of international and domestic flights
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Avoidance of designated “danger zones”
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Over 100,000 passengers affected
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Increased operational costs for airlines
Taiwan’s transport ministry stated that these measures are necessary to ensure passenger safety during the military exercises.
Beijing’s Official Position
China’s foreign ministry framed the drills as a justified and necessary response to what it sees as growing separatism and foreign interference.
Statements from Beijing
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Called the drills a “severe punishment for separatist forces”
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Warned “external forces” against using Taiwan to contain China
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Reiterated commitment to eventual reunification
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Emphasized that reunification will not be obstructed by foreign powers
China maintains that while it prefers “peaceful reunification,” it reserves the right to use “non-peaceful means” if Taiwan moves toward formal independence.
Role of the United States and Arms Sales
The timing of the drills closely follows the US announcement of a major weapons package for Taiwan.
Details of the US Arms Deal
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Value: $11 billion
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Includes advanced missile systems, surveillance equipment, and defense upgrades
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Intended to strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities
Beijing strongly condemned the sale, accusing Washington of violating China’s sovereignty and fueling instability. In retaliation, China announced sanctions against several US defense companies.
Taiwan’s Political Leadership and Stance
China has repeatedly accused Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te of promoting independence, a claim he firmly denies.
President Lai’s Position
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States Taiwan is already a sovereign nation
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Says there is no need to formally declare independence
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Emphasizes maintaining the status quo
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Argues that peace depends on “real strength”
In a recent interview, Lai stated that Taiwan must “raise the difficulty” for any potential invasion so that China “can never meet the standard.”
Public Opinion in Taiwan
Despite rising tensions, polls consistently show that most Taiwanese citizens prefer stability over dramatic political change.
Key Poll Findings
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Majority favor maintaining the status quo
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Little support for immediate unification with China
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Limited support for a formal declaration of independence
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Strong desire for peace and security
This public sentiment places Taiwan’s leadership in a delicate position—strengthening defenses without triggering further escalation.
Escalating Military Pressure Since 2022
China’s military activity around Taiwan has increased significantly over the past few years.
Notable Past Incidents
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2022: Large-scale drills after US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan
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2024: Exercises following President Lai’s inauguration
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April 2025: Live-fire drills simulating strikes on ports and energy facilities
During earlier exercises, the PLA released propaganda materials, including cartoons portraying President Lai as a “parasite,” signaling a more aggressive information warfare strategy.
New Leadership in China’s Eastern Theater Command
This week’s drills are the first major exercises under Yang Zhibin, the new chief of the Eastern Theater Command, who assumed office in October.
Significance of the Leadership Change
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Signals continuity in China’s hardline approach
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Demonstrates readiness under new command
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Reinforces Beijing’s focus on Taiwan as a top strategic priority
Analysts see this as an opportunity for China to showcase military capability and internal command cohesion.
Taiwan’s Own Military Exercises: Han Kuang
Taiwan has also been increasing the scale of its own military preparedness.
Han Kuang Military Exercise
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Duration: 10 days
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Largest and longest exercise in Taiwan’s history
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Focus on:
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Civil defense
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Joint military operations
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Protection of critical infrastructure
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These drills aim to prepare both the military and civilian population for potential scenarios while signaling deterrence to Beijing.
Strengthening Air Defense Capabilities
In October, President Lai announced plans to build a dome-like air defense system.
Features of the Proposed System
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Designed to counter missile and aerial threats
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Integrated radar and interception technology
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Intended to protect major population centers
Although China was not explicitly mentioned, the system is widely seen as a response to growing PLA missile capabilities.
Regional and Global Implications
The Taiwan Strait is a vital global trade route, and any conflict would have far-reaching consequences.
Potential Global Impact
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Disruption of global supply chains
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Increased energy and shipping costs
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Heightened US-China confrontation
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Risk of regional military escalation involving allies
Many countries have urged restraint, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and stability in the region.
Conclusion
China’s “Justice Mission 2025” drills represent a significant escalation in military pressure on Taiwan, underscoring Beijing’s determination to deter independence and counter foreign involvement. Taiwan, meanwhile, continues to strengthen its defenses while emphasizing a commitment to peace and the status quo.
As military activity intensifies and rhetoric hardens, the situation in the Taiwan Strait remains fragile. With millions of lives, global trade, and regional security at stake, the actions taken in the coming months will be critical in determining whether this long-standing dispute remains contained—or moves closer to open conflict.